Russia's "soft power" in its neighbourhood: the case of belarus

This bachelor thesis provides an analysis of the practical application of Russian soft power, its change and effectiveness in regards to the Belarusian society. Soft power theory, developed by Joseph S. Nye and based on the concept of attraction in order to influence the behaviour of other states, has become an influential way to explain international relations for the academic community, journalists and politicians. After the dissolution of USSR, Russia has eventually understood the importance of developing its soft power capabilities. However, this state has deviated from the original understanding of soft power and has chosen to pursue a state-controlled, pragmatic and instrumentalist soft power strategy, while still garnering the support of other societies through recourses highlighted by Nye: Russian culture (by promoting Russian language, interpretation of history, soviet nostalgia), values (conservative, traditional, anti-liberal worldview) and foreign policy (by confrontation with the West and maintaining its influence in the post-soviet region), while uniting them under the concept of “Russian world”. The reaction of Belarusian society to Russia’s soft power attempts was chosen as an object of this thesis due to it being a relatively under-researched field, stemming from the assumption that the Belarusian nation is undoubtedly “lost” to the Russian sphere of influence. In order to answer the main research question – how effective was the Russian soft power in Belarus over the period of the last decade (2009-2019), the author formulated such objectives: to review the existing academic literature and to distinguish main discoveries on this topic; to present the soft power theory and how it relates to other interpretations of power; to explain the unique understanding of Russian soft power, its resources and instruments used in Belarus; to present the methodology; to analyse the attractiveness of Russian soft power tools and resources to the Belarusian society; to present the conclusions and recommendations of this research. By employing the case analysis method, the author uses public opinion polls to evaluate the effectiveness of Russian soft power instruments: Russian media and Russian Orthodox Church, as well as its resources: culture and values (by proactive measures of international students, tourists and emigrants), foreign policy (by geopolitical orientations and preferable relations to Russia). The results of the study allow to confirm the main thesis: Russian soft power in Belarus is not fully effective and during the last decade has decreased. The analysis of Russian media shows that although Russian television content still enjoys great popularity, Belarusians’ trust in it, which is paramount to the success of soft power, has decreased over the recent years. Russian social media sites and political websites (such as “Sputnik Belarus”), while being popular, are surpassed by independent websites which usually espouse critical views towards Russia and the Belarusian regime. The influence of Russian Orthodox Church is greatly minimized by the low attendance of Belarusians, President Lukashenko’s control and renewed attempts to establish an autonomous Belarusian Orthodox Church. The analysis of attractiveness of the Russian culture and values through proactive measures – international Belarusian students (the Russian option has decreased), tourism (Russia is unpopular) and emigration (has declined because more Belarusians choose the Western countries) also demonstrate the loss of capability to attract Belarusians to identify with the concept of the “Russian World”. Belarusian’s geopolitical orientations remain rather pro-Russian than pro-European, however, the absolute majority of them do not want to enter into a union with the Russian Federation, therefore its ultimate goal to realize the Belarus-Russia Union State and the Russian foreign policy are considered rather unattractive